Summary for Week Ending 31st March 2007
We were looking for some consolidation this week, and we got it. As mentioned last week, the danger was a 1 day retracement as this would have been indicative of things going too far too fast, and would have been a hollow advance at best. Instead we got a solid 5 day counter trend movement ( so far ) which is well within the bounds of reality.
There isn't really too much that can be said about the coming week, except that if we do see more bearishness we still require that the market hold above the old low. Coming all the way down would still be a signal of a retest, and a drop below would put the cat amongst the pigeons as we would then be looking at 2 scenarios. 1) Full-on bearishness, or 2) the possibility of a false break. This is something we do not want to see as its all to confusing to see the path out.
As long as we remain bullish, the path forward is clear. If we have seen the end of the counter trend then we should be at a new high for the cycle within 1-3 days. Any longer as we're in trouble. All things being equal, more bullishness should see the market at the Feb high within 2 weeks.
|
