Summary for Week Ending 29th September 2006
Again the news this week was thin on the ground so there's nothing breathtaking to focus on.
Last week...
The market quickly shrugged off the finish to the previous week and rocketed to a new high for the cycle. What took 2 days to fall was recovered (and more) in one day so the pressure was certainly to the upside. Oil has been a great friend in this rally and there is certainly plenty of optimism about. Looking more closely at what we have so far we can also see that we are now in the 7th wave or the 4th wave forwards. Ordinarily one can expect 5 wave forwards strictly under Elliot however the wave counting business is too fuzzy under his rules so a simplified model of 5,7,9 or even 11 waves is much easier to play with and is just as accurate as Elliot. 9 and 11 waves are rare and mostly we can expect 5 to seven waves before a move becomes at risk. As such confirmation of this would be a lower high with follow thru and we haven't seen this yet, to the whole business of top picking is just as unsavory as the business of bottom picking.
Next Week...
So where does this leave us.. Well the market has been going up and I wont be standing in front of a moving train... so we'll just have to wait and see.
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