Summary for Week Ending 19th February 2006
Again this week, the ongoing weakness in LT Crude futures is about the only thing that may have any kind of effect on the medium term in Equities. Other that that, we're back to technicals as far as analysis is concerned.
Lets look at the last week.
Last week I said I was still hopeful for the Monday change of trend day, but wasn't all that confident about it given what had happen the previous week. This week did prove out that the bottom of the minor swing was in fact on the 7th Feb with the market giving us an inside day on the Monday and then taking off for the rest of the week. The only concern here is the performance on Friday as the market hit the previous swing high. Ordinarily I would have expected a continuation of the strength until we hit the old highs, but Friday was a weak performance. It hasn't gone down, but it didn't do much about going up either. This weakness on the day is a concern.
So where to....
Looking at this weeks chart we can see the strong rally for the week, and the damp effort put in on Friday. As I said a couple of weeks ago, if the market doesn't get into it then we are looking at a low for the March period. This hasn't happened yet, but it will be worth keeping a close watch on how the market plays out this week. An explosive rally should be just that... Explosive, so any sign of weak behaviour should concentrate attention of what the longer term prospects hold. If we do get a counter trend movement, then it should be 1-2 days at most. remember, there is a lot of energy built up here, and only a short period of time to spend it.
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