Summary for Week Ending 8th April 2006
Oil was quiet but the news of possible trade sanctions against China ( 27% tariffs ) as well as unattributed reports of Washingtons desire to bomb Iran nuclear facilities may be enough to put everyone on edge.
Last week...
This past week we saw more of what has been going on for the previous 3 weeks which is pretty much nothing at all. If your a pivot swing trader then times have been very tough indeed. Since the low on the 28th March the market finally made it to a new high this week, clearing blue sky on Wednesday. Llast week I said I was expecting some bearishness with the tight triple top that was in place. Needless to say this call looked like rubbish from the start on Monday and got steadily worse as the week progressed, that is until Friday. I certainly never saw that coming. After crawling along for almost 7 days, the market wiped out all the gains (albeit not much of a gain) in 1 day. Technically this does not look good and there is no real way of putting a positive spin on this move. There have been may reports of reasons for the sell off but none of then really expalin how the market managed to tank so completely in one day. By the way I have no expanation either, but as we all know now, it did happen.
So what's happening ?
This weeks charts has Top number 4 marked up on it. Looking more closely we could ignore No 2 and have it as 3 tops, but in reality its not important at the moment. It only becomes significant after the event. Although last week I said I was bearish, I am bearish yet again for this week. If the 1295 support is broken convincingly then I would expect the slide to continue. If the current compression movement was rising then you would have to say that its continuation pattern but this is not the case. Every time the market has stuck its head up its gotten hammered and hammered quickly. On the downside I would be looking for the market to trade a bar below the 1295 support for initial confoirmation, and should I be wrong on direction, I would be looking at the same for the upside. The biggest danger here is that the range can become 'magnetic', that is the market pops out of it only to quickly return. Lets see what the week brings.
NOTE : There will be no report over the Easter weekend. |
