Summary for Week Ending 17th December 2005
I was expecting a little more corrective movements this week but alas that was not to be. Although there was upwards movement this week it was not impressive but this may have more to do with the time of year other than anything else with more importance.
We now have a confirmed higher swing low coming in from last Thursdays low and by Wednesday we had a confirmed higher swing high giving the overall pattern a rising compressive flavor about it. This is a good thing as this is still a bullish movement and as I said earlier it may be simply the time of year that is slowing this down a little. The 30 day model presented last week is still a possibility but this would be off the Thursday low giving us an earlier forecast termination date, but at this point its not really important. This will only become a factor if the market continues to rise and we are approaching the 90 day area, until then its just a matter of watching and looking for long side trading opportunities.
Its been another tough year for the S&P 500 with the market spending almost the entire year within a trading range and little good trending behaviour, before finally bursting out at the end. From a trading perspective, this is a tough ask, but you cant take it if its not given so its one of those years where patience is tested to the max and your belief in your trading style is also tested. If your approach is based on a few incontrovertible rules then you may have been out for much of the year, but as the last few months have highlighted, if you held on and kept your powder dry during the tough times, the market finally threw up a tradable strong trend. maybe not enough for such a poor year, but its always better that nothing.
This will be the last report for 2005 so good luck in the next few weeks that remain in 2005 and even better fortune in 2006. The next report will be for teh week ending Jan 14th 2006
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