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Summary for Week Ending 19th June 2004
After a solid slump on Monday the market this week has had an awful time
trying to recover. Whilst Tuesday appeared to display some promise with
a recovery of the Monday losses, there was no evidence on Wednesday of a
desire to get on with it and since we have seen a short period of virtually
nothing happening.
Looking closer at the week that was, Monday marked the 3rd day of the
counter trend rally and was set up for a continuation of the rally.
What has been disappointing is the fact that we have not seen
any strength at all, in either direction. Every time the market has had an
excellent opportunity to accelerate a strong decline pattern it has been
baulking and lately, the same has been for the upside. Last week I
mentioned that I was looking at the 18th as a possible change in trend
as it marks a time range equality area. Looking at the way the market
has performed. there has been no strong run in either direction into the
date so the chances are very slim that it will produce anything
significant.
Coming ahead, my only concern is what is happening with the current
counter trend movement we are in. last week I mentioned that the
worse case scenario was for the market to enter a period of sideways
activity where the market just chops around with little or no trending
behavior. Looking at what happened on Friday, we now have a new down day following the weak up day on Tuesday giving the beginning of a lower swing high pattern. For something to come of this I would be looking for the previous low to be taken out by Monday. Any vacillation here and I think we will be in for a period of slack dull market behavior.
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