|
Summary for Week Ending 22nd August 2003
This week we saw the markets perform in a similar manner
to the previous week, except at a higher level. Early on we saw a jump
into a higher territory only to see the rest of the week potter about
this new range. The only excitement occurred on Friday where we saw the
markets perhaps get ahead of themselves and spent the day declining giving
us a possible outside reversal day.
On this last point, this is more expected at the end of a strong run,
which as we all know, this is not something that we have seen for some
time. The S&P still appears to be marking time, continuing with the
sideways pattern we have seen for the past 60+ days. The DJIA on the other
hand is running a different race with a slow march upwards continuing
this week, and like the S&P, closing the week with an outside reversal
day. Last week I highlighted the weekly charts and noted that the DJIA
looked bullish, an opinion that was borne out this week, however the S&P
was looking less so. Although we had rises this week in this index, we
have yet to scale the heights of the previous run. Looking at the daily
chart one does get the impression that the S&P is trying desperately
to get into new territory but as yet has not received the impetus to get
on with it. This is in keeping with what the weekly chart is showing us,
and that is that the S&P appears locked into this pattern.
Looking ahead, we have the 2nd anniversary of the Sept 11 atrocity looming
large on the horizon. News reports this week that the Bali bombing was
originally timed for Sept 11 2002 ( but they couldn't get their act together
in time ) leads one to wonder about what to expect this year. Hopefully
nothing, but any major event will obviously have an impact on the markets
so this date cannot be ignored. Looking at last year we did get a reversal
on the day so it does have some impact. After that we are looking at the
Equinox around the 21st-24th Sept which is the anniversary of the Sept
2001 lows. Following on from that the next obvious date is the Oct 10th
which is of course the anniversary of the 2002 lows. Gann always mentioned
that anniversary dates should always be watched.
Last week I said that the previous decline was for 23 days and the 12
days was worth a look. It produced nothing so a quick glance forward of
the full 23 days gives us Friday the 29th Aug. In this environment its
is of little matter to me whilst the markets are in this mood. All the
trading opportunities have been in individual stocks and I will be continuing
to watch these until this malaise sorts itself out.
|
