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Summary for Week Ending 19th December 2003
As this will be the final posting for 2003, I would like
to thank everyone who has bothered to take time out and read these weekly
musings. From an analysts perspective, it is difficult to get excited
when things are going slowly, so I feel sympathy for the sportscaster
who has to cover sailing. Its just so difficult to make it all look interesting.
The latter half of 2003 has been just like a sailing event but without
the high seas and the strong wind. Just a steady progression to the finish,
without the bravado and heroics.
This week we saw what I have been mentioning the past couple of weeks,
that being that the resistance levels are being ignored and that other
more simple factors are taking over. We had the Saddam capture as a news
highlight, but only the amateurs would have got hold of that as a reason
to buy the market. As a piece of international justice its great news,
but you wouldn't go out and bet the ranch on INTEL because of it. Looking
at the current cycle in the S&P we are well over the regulatory 90
day mark and still looking strong. Coming into the christmas period there
is plenty of buyers, and like I said last week, we can only make an assumption
that they are getting set for the January effect. Three out of the last
four years has seen a slump in January not a rally, so we can only wait
and see. From the standard technical perspective, we are fast approaching
the 50% retracement mark in the S&P at 1160. Around the 20th Jan is
also 50% in time so a major price time square possibility is quite close.
This area is also very close to the late 2001 early 2002 highs, so basic
resistance is also a player. Just below that we have a Range Square at
1140 which also cannot be ignored.
As I like to say to anyone who is prepared to listen, Anything can happen...and
usually does, its all about being prepared for anything. I am sure the
2004 will continue to provide more opportunities for everyone who is prepared
to look and take action. As a parting shot I would like to again thank
everyone for their patience, and for those who offer feedback as well.
Sometimes there is simply not enough time to respond to everyone, but
I try. I am looking at altering this format in the coming year, but no
hard decisions have been made as yet.
The Next posting will be on January 11th 2004.
I would like to wish everyone a safe holiday season, and a profitable
but fun 2004.
Thanks and best regards
Bill Voeten
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