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Summary for Week Ending 12th September 2003
Whilst it appeared early that we might have an interesting
week in the markets, this evaporated quickly and we pretty much saw the
S&P trade with last weeks range. Sept 11 passed with incident, although
there were no shortage of warning of the possibility of future atrocities.
This didn't really appear to have any impact on the markets, and they
were generally quiet.
Last week I said that should the correction continue then the support
should com in on the June high or the August high. Monday saw a swing
to new highs on the S&P and to a lower high in the DJIA, so both markets
are running slightly contrary to one another. From this point we saw some
declines, but nothing to really speak of, and the S&P made it to a
new low on Friday only to recover late in the day, and this low was within
the area of the August high and was also close to the 50% retracement
level of the swing from 26th August. We can also see a range equality,
so the high on Monday and subsequent retracement had a bit going for it
Looking at the DJIA we don't have as much that is obvious, but it should
also be acknowledged that the DJIA doesn't always give us nice clean clear
cut signals. The Lower top was as good as it as going to get.
Looking ahead, we have the September 21-24 equinox which has been fruitful
in the past and this year is a 2nd anniversary. Looking at the S&P
chart this week its also 45 degrees from the last leg of the decline so
I'll be keeping a watch on this.
On the news front there doesn't seem to be too much that is going to inspire
nor cause despair so I'll be looking from a technical perspective. Both
the DJIA and the S&P look bullish, and this is given from both the
daily and the weekly swing charts. The run up in the S&P was 13 days
and we have seen 5 days in decline to around the 50% level It may have
some more in it but it appears that the energy to decline is spent. The
secret now is if we will see another run upwards to new highs. Other than
the above, there is very little happening.
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