Summary for Week Ending 5th April 2003

The energy that was generated by the Iraq invasion appears to be dissipating as those who jumped in early must now be watching nervously if history will indeed repeat this time around and follow events of the Gulf War in 1991. Bearing this in mind, it is worthwhile to look back over the past few weeks and see what has unfolded.

Up until the 12th March we where looking at a market heading South, although the 12th/13th was a headlining COT date. This indeed did come about and we saw the market lift off like a rocket, with an urgency not seen for some time. This push forward lasted 9 calendar days and topped on 21st March, another COT date arrived at from the equinox and related to other dates that pre-date the Sept 2001 low. At this point, the markets where at a difficult point in that they had rallied with considerable vigor and with accompanying volume to indicate that indeed the bear had capitulated in favor of a renewed bull market, however we were still below the previous major swing high and as such looked like making yet another lower swing high. Most of this upwards sentiment was driven by investors and financial media 'tarts' who looked back 10 or so years and made the simple assumption that it happened last time, and so it will again, and they had the charts and the data to prove it. A regular reader of this commentary and/or an avid market watcher will know that the obvious is to be avoided at most junctures, and if there is a message that I can impart it is simply that :