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24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See
Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due
to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the
DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information
and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive
their own forecasts on these assumptions.
Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should
look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance
is the 180 week cycle.
We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from
the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower)
high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not
canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into
account.
Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992
low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant
1972 Aug High and Oct low
Short Term Perspective
Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See
Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy
Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles
are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002
Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )
As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of
possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks
in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong
events.
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Summary for Week Ending 29th June 2002
A very interesting week in financial circles starting with the Worldcom
fiasco which proved that anyone can cook the books and the week finished
with the Xerox bookkeeper admitting that he didnt know the difference
between Debit and Credit. All this is akin to Phillip Morris reporting
its compensation payouts as revenue (and the way things have gone this
week, I would not be surprised). From a personal veiwpoint, this game
is tough enough without bent company officers and self indulgent consultants
and auditors further tilting the playing field. The loss of confidence
that these events incur can only assist in further depressing an already
depressed market.
Looking at the 3 markets, we had the DOW hold marginally above the Log
Chart Support line alluded last week. The S&P 500 just held above the
Support level of the Sept 2001 lows and the NASDAQ briefly stuck its nose
below the Sept 2001 support line. From a technical perspective, the action
of the NASDAQ does hint towards news lows in this market. Perhaps not
imediately, but the Index is in a very weak position.
Swing Charts
DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ
Just like last week...All swing Patters are Down !
Charts
DOW The Chart for the DOW this week shows the steep channel of
the currrent decline. Technically, this a a weak indicator with the upper
a lower bounds of the channel a regularily broken during declines. Alo
highlighted is the Range Square from the March High to the May low. Also
Of note is the Volume spike which occurred on Friday, which was the highest
since the Sept 2001 low. This spike occured on the 2nd day of the currrent
2 day countertrend rally. The current decline has seen mostly 1 day countertrend
rally's and as such which may signal further declines in the coming week.
S&P This weeks chart is a repeat of last weeks Log Chart. Attached
also is the Price retracement levels indicationg ~924 as a possible resiting
place. A break dow below the support line may see the market resting at
this point.
NASDAQ This week the chart simply highlights the considerable amount
of support that can be expected around the 1350 level. Looking at the
weekly chart we can see the spike low of Oct 98 marked the launch pad
for the Tech Boom which followed.
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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