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Summary for Week Ending 29th March 2002
A somewhat lackluster week this week with movement for all markets continuing
the murky sluggishness that has been a feature of the previous fortnight.
The short week, coupled with the pending holiday break probably contributed
to focus being more on sunny beaches that balance sheets. Looking at the
March COT, it appears to have been effective, although the jury is still
out as to its significance in the overall picture. The Dow bounced off
a cluster of two significant technical levels (see more below) and the
S&P and NASDAQ also found support.
Swing Charts
DJIA The Daily swing confirmed the DOWN pattern this week forming
the prerequisite Lower Low swing on Tuesday. The Weekly swing is still
up with this weeks action finally producing a usable Bar ( previous have
been inside and outside ) swinging the Chart down. A considerable amount
of consistent downside action will be required to move the Weekly from
a Long to a Short with Weekly Swing current needing to break the 9443
level to form a lower low. This depth of level may change if the bearishness
continues.
S&P500 The Daily swing Chart, similar to the DOW pattern, managed
to confirm the Downwards pattern this week, confirming with a lower low
on Tuesday. This mirroring of the markets has been evident for a number
of weeks now and is worthwhile following for the short term at least.
Also like the Dow, the Weekly swing chart has turned down, but also has
a long way to go to confirm the lower swing low (1074).
NASDAQ The Daily swing chart is still in DOWN mode with action
this week giving us another Lower Swing lower which was confirmed on Tuesday
breaking the bounce of the previous week which was near the 50% level.
The Weekly Swing has a Lower swing High confirmed and now awaits a lower
swing low to confirm the downward pattern.
Charts
This weeks DOW chart has the two technical levels highlighted that gave
us the Tuesday low at 10237. The First is the Price retracement level
( highlighted on last weeks chart) and the Second is the Range Square
from the 10729 top stopping at the 61.8% division of the Square. The 200%
rule target has yet to be reached and the technical bounce on Tuesday
may be enough to halt the slide. Of particular interest is the High on
Thursday stopping at the 61.8 % retracement (not shown) from the recent
decline and the Price cluster evident at the 161% of the Range Square.
The S&P this week has price retracement levels highlighted, which
show that the current decline has not bounced off any technical levels.
There is a trendline running from the Sept 2001 low which crosses the
61.8% retracement level around 8th April. Also of interest is the Price
Range equality of 42 points showing a terminus at the same 61.8% retracement
level. This also ties up with the above Dow analysis.
The lack of bullishness in the NASDAQ has persisted this week, and from
a technical perspective, does not appear inclined to waver from the Bear
that started on 11th March. Highlighted this week is the Price Retracement
level and the Gann Fan which provided support on the 2x1 line. Also of
note is the 100 point Price Range equality lining up with the 61.8% retracement
level.
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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