Summary for Week Ending 27th April 2002

A week of falls across all three markets with the long awaited acceleration finally appearing. The past month has seen the market simply drifting lower without any signal that the bulls had started to throw up their hands. This week ha provided some signals that the bears may have the upper hand with the depth, consistency and speed of the declines indicating that the tone may have changed. Technically the NASDAQ has hit an important Fibonacci level and the S&P has also hit a Square of 9 point coupled with a basic technical support area. Both The S&P and the NASDAQ formed Outside days on Friday however they both finished on their knees thus negating the possibility of a textbook 'Outside Reversal'.
.

Swing Charts

DJIA The downward swing pattern has continued with no technical signs on the horizon indicating any reversals ahead. From a Time perspective, the April 21-28 range (as mentioned in the forecast) is upon us, and a COT is due, however the current tone of the market would indicate that any COT at this juncture would at best be a simple rally against the trend, and as such, be short-lived.

S&P500 After the Higher Swing High last week managed to suck us into a Bear Neutral mode, the action following was simply straight Down terminating the week with an Outside Day, although closing very weakly, near the lows of the session. Distance traversed so far in this swing is 57 points which is well above the previous downward swings of the past month (22,34,25,35,22,32). The Termination on Friday was near the Feb 22 mini double bottom and can be expected to provide some support at least in the near term, however a concerted push below this area would see the 1061 level ( 50% retracement ) provide the next level of technical resistance.

NASDAQ The 3 Wave rally against the trend intimated last week did not eventuate as direction was decidedly down. The Technical support level of 22 Feb held for only 1 day hinting that the current trend may still have someway to go. The current swing down has traversed 168 points which is well beyond the the previous swings in what has up till now been a creeping decline. The outside day on Friday, like the S&P finished on the lows for the session indicating that sentiment is still very sour. The breaking of the support level can also be expected to cast a pall over proceedings next week.


Charts
Similar to last week, this weeks DOW chart has the secondary support line marked up as well as the original Range Square off the Double top. Support was found at the expected 100% level but was short-lived. Looking a bit further out, we have 90 Solar degrees from the Jan 30 low coming in on 30th April.

The S&P Chart this week has Standard retracement levels Highlighted as well as the Square of 9 off the recent 19th Mar High. Also highlighted is another of the 54-57 price ranges which have been repeating recently. Also highlighted is the 108 day time range for the previous run up expiring on Thursday.

The NASDAQ chart this week has the 402 point Range equality possibility highlighted once again as well as the standard retracement levels indicating the proximity to the 61.8% retracement level. The Range Square of the initial decline ( 402 points ) shows duplicate support around the 1544 area should the current slide continue.

DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart