Home Data Products Download Donate !

General
  Current Outlook
2002 Reports
  Dec 20th 2002
  Dec 13th 2002
  Dec 6th 2002
  Nov 29th 2002
  Nov 22nd 2002
  Nov 15th 2002
  Nov 1st 2002
  Oct 26th 2002
  Oct 19th 2002
  Oct 12th 2002
  Oct 5th 2002
  Sept 28th 2002
  Sept 21st 2002
  Sept 14th 2002
  Sept 7th 2002
  Aug 31st 2002
  Aug 24th 2002
  Aug 17th 2002
  Aug 10th 2002
  Aug 3rd 2002
  Jul 27th 2002
  Jul 20th 2002
  Jul 13th 2002
  Jul 6th 2002
  Jun 29th 2002
  Jun 22nd 2002
  Jun 15th 2002
  Jun 8th 2002
  Jun 1st 2002
  May 25th 2002
  May 18th 2002
  May 11th 2002
  May 4th 2002
  Apr 27th 2002
  Apr 20th 2002
  Apr 13th 2002
  Apr 6th 2002
  Mar 29th 2002
  Mar 22th 2002
  Mar 15th 2002
  Mar 8th 2002
  Mar 1st 2002
  Feb 22nd 2002
  Feb 15th 2002
  Feb 8th 2002
  Feb 1st 2002
  Jan 25th 2002
  Jan 11th 2002
  Jan 4th 2002
2006
2005
2004
2003
2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
It should be noted that the material presented here is not necessarily the only possibility. The purpose of this section is to encourage the reader to LOOK for themselves, and by using the tools provided with the Professional V3.0, such as Time ranges and Squares, the reader can see for themselves how various movements are interconnected with the past.

The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Not all the possibilities are covered, just the ones that are most prominent.

24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive their own forecasts on these assumptions.

Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance is the 180 week cycle.

We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower) high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into account.

Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992 low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant 1972 Aug High and Oct low

Short Term Perspective

Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002

Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )

As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong events.


Summary for Week Ending 25th May 2002

Another positive week this week despite the overhang of terrorist attack warnings, although it may be considered that the warnings have taken all the enthusiasm out of the market. This was evidenced by Fridays paltry volume indicating that indecision is the order for the day where no-one wants to buy...and no-one wants to sell either. With things this slow we await next weeks action for some more confirming indicators.


Swing Charts

DJIA A Higher swing High and Higher Swing low this week has given us confirmation of the upward trend although the swing moves and the deep retracement of the latest swing down has to be viewed with caution since we did not get wide upward movements from Wed base.

S&P500 Similar to the DOW we have a Higher Swing High/Higher Swing Low pattern confirming the upward swing trend. Also similar to the DOW, the retracement has been deep, and the 'hoped for' strong move out of the secondary base did not appear. All blame for this can be placed upon the reporting of the possibility of further threats to the nations security.

NASDAQ Similar to the previous two markets the NASDAQ is following in tandem and has also made the necessary confirmation Higher Swing High Higher Swing Low pattern. It too has also retraced deeply, but still managed to stay above the previous low. Indicators for direction either way are weak and like the DOW and the S&P, these markets are in a no-mans land at present.

Charts
DOW This weeks chart has the price retracements highlighting the touch near the 61.8% level and the possibilities of price extension using range equality. Wed is 433 days from the 22 Mar 2001 low ( time range - 14th Jan 2000 to 22 Mar 2001). The danger zone for the DOW is the 10004 swing Low.

S&P The chart this week has the price retracements highlighted and the possible range equality price extensions. Monday is 431 days from the Mar 22 2001 low ( Time Range - 17th July 2000 - 21 Sept 2001) and Wed is 248 Days from Sept 21 2001 low ( Time Range 17th July 2000 - 22 Mar 2001 ). The Danger Zone for the S&P is 1076.

NASDAQ This weeks NASDAQ has the possible Price range equality extensions highlighted. The Danger Zone for the NASDAQ is 1644.



DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



© Copyright Gannalyst Pty Ltd 2000 - 2008. All Rights Reserved
Gannalyst Pty Ltd PO Box 387 Toowong 4066 Brisbane Queensland Australia.
Privacy | Disclaimer