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  Dec 20th 2002
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Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in trend should occur on the given date. How this date is arrived at will be published in the week following the COT date irregardless as to the success or failure of the forecast.
25th January 2002 - Outlook for DJIA - S&P 500 -NASDAQ
As we approach the March equinox, a series of interesting numbers are emerging.
180 weeks (1260 days) from the 8th Oct Significant low gives us the date : 21st March 2002.
180 (Sq144 *1.25) Days from the recent Sept 2001 low gives us the date : 20th March 2002.
180 Solar Degrees from the Sept 2001 Low Gives us the date : 18th March 2002
182 Days ( Gann Emblem ) from the Sept 2002 Low gives us the date : 22nd March 2002
521 Days (18 Oct 99 - 22 Mar 01) from 18th Oct 2000 Significant low gives : 23rd Mar 2002
439 Days (8 Mar 00 - 21 May 01) from 4th Jan 2001 significant high gives 19th Mar 2002
The March Equinox falls at 12.19 am on the 21st March 2002

Taking the above numbers into account and the fact that the last two equinoxes have proven useful, then we can make an assumption as to the upcoming Dates. As can be seen, there is a relatively wide variety in dates, however, that average for all the times falls around the 20th and 21st of March, so a change of trend can be expected on or around these days.


Summary for Week Ending 25th Jan 2002

The previous COT dates for Jan have fizzled with the Jan 7th high missed even though it fell on the anniversary of last years January top. The markets this week have held well considering the battering that could have been expected following the on going Enron fiasco and the Kmart filing. Lower then expected earning estimates for the majors appears to have been already factored in, as reaction to the consistent poor news has landed a number of blows, yet no significant cracks have appeared as yet.

Looking at the weekly swing charts for all three markets, new swing lows have been made, the first new swing lows since Sept 21st 2001. A confirmation lower swing high is now required to confirm a Downwards trending market. Should the market turn to medium term bear, then the above forecast dates may come into play with the March 21st last year producing a significant low.

Using the scenario of a low, then the likely price points are the standard Gann and fibonacci retracement levels for the current run. If we look back to a previous outlook published 21st Sept last year, the associated Chart shows the significance of the Sept low on a log chart. If this is the beginning of a new bull run, then the first upward wave can expect a deep retracement. Should it return back to the trend line on the log chart, then that would bring the DOW back to the 8380 level, a decline of approx. 1950 points from the Jan High. Looking back through history for a similar range we can see the 6th Sept 2000 - 18th Oct Decline ran for 42 days and gave up 1947 points. Time will tell.


The Following Charts have the above analysis highlighted.
DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



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