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| Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P
500 |
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| The following forecasts are based upon a selection of
primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding
Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should
not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend
will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in
trend should occur on the given date. |
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| Summary for Week Ending 22th March 2002 The COT has arrived and the outcome is somewhat blurred. The Market action this week has been as exciting as watching grass grow and the prerequisite market violence alluded to last week simply did not appear. Both the DOW and the S&P reacted on the 19th forming minor double tops. In the scheme of things this was on the early side of the forecast range and the S&P bouncing a little on the 21st threw even more confusion into the arrangement. Neither market hit any significant technical points except the S&P bouncing off the strong 1174-5 area although considering previous action around this are, it was not to be completely unexpected. Without a strong move in one direction prior to the COT to react against, action for the most part this week as been on purely technical grounds ( double tops, 3 wave declines etc.) Swing Charts DJIA The Daily swing is in a mixed pattern, forming a Higher high and Lower lower for the week. The Swing high has given us a technical (minor) double top. On the weekly chart, action has produced an outside day so no change to the Weekly swings, still pointing up. S&P500 The Daily swing Chart is mirroring the DOW at present, giving a mixed pattern. High Swing high this week up to the highly resistant 1174 mark then a swift pullback generating a lower swing low. Like the DOW, this weeks action also produced an outside bar which threw the Weekly swing into a mixed pattern as well, so we await the following week for some confirming signals. NASDAQ The Daily swing chart is currently in DOWN mode with action this week giving up the confirming lower swing high and Lower swing low. Technically, the low occurred on near the 50% retracement level and then found some strength on Friday to make a little movement up off this level. Any moves above 1893 this week will break the pattern and alter the status to mixed. Charts This weeks DOW chart has the parallel channel highlighted as well as the price retracement levels from the previous run. Assuming the 19th Mar is the high for the current movement then from a technical perspective the lower channel line should be our support. Looking at the 61.8% retracement level we can see this falls around the end of April. There is a cluster of time zones around this date and I'll outline more of this next week. The S&P this week has the Square of 9 ( Gann Emblem divisions) marked on the chart, as this area has yet again been dominating proceedings for some time now. Following from the Dow, it too has made a minor Double Top, so using the 200% rule (total decline should be 200% of the first leg) for DT's, it gives a support level at around 1129. Using the Square of 9 from the 22nd Feb 1074 low shows 1124 at 135 Degrees... and shows 1129 at 120 degrees from this weeks 1174 high. As mentioned last week, the NASDAQ was setting itself up for a 3 wave decline which it duly performed. Thursday saw the bottom end near the 50% retracement level generating a significant outside day and manage some upward movement on Friday. Overall the trend is still down, as has a distance to go to inspire any bullish confidence. DJIA See Chart S&P 500 See Chart NASDAQ See Chart |
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