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  Dec 20th 2002
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2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in trend should occur on the given date.
25th January 2002 - Outlook for DJIA - S&P 500 -NASDAQ
As we approach the March equinox, a series of interesting numbers are emerging.
180 weeks (1260 days) from the 8th Oct Significant low gives us the date : 21st March 2002.
180 (Sq144 *1.25) Days from the recent Sept 2001 low gives us the date : 20th March 2002.
180 Solar Degrees from the Sept 2001 Low Gives us the date : 18th March 2002
182 Days ( Gann Emblem ) from the Sept 2002 Low gives us the date : 22nd March 2002
521 Days (18 Oct 99 - 22 Mar 01) from 18th Oct 2000 Significant low gives : 23rd Mar 2002
439 Days (8 Mar 00 - 21 May 01) from 4th Jan 2001 significant high gives 19th Mar 2002
The March Equinox falls at 12.19 am on the 21st March 2002

Taking the above numbers into account and the fact that the last two equinoxes have proven useful, then we can make an assumption as to the upcoming Dates. As can be seen, there is a relatively wide variety in dates, however, that average for all the times falls around the 20th and 21st of March, so a change of trend can be expected on or around these days.


Summary for Week Ending 22nd Feb 2002

An interesting this week with the DOW managing to hold its ground, the S&P slipping a little and the NASDAQ slipping a lot. This may be indicative of the class of stocks that make up each index, with quality falling away at the lower end. The ongoing 'Accounting' drama is still managing to cast a pall over the markets.

DJIA The Swing charts for the Daily swings are showing consistent higher highs and lower lows, however the Weekly is still in an unconfirmed down pattern, and will remain so while the daily is in conflict with it.
S&P500 The Swing Charts for the Daily swings have been displaying lower highs and lower lows, and this week the Weekly swing charts gave us a new lower high, confirming the current bearish trend.
NASDAQ As can be imagined the Daily swing charts have been pointing down for some time, and of most interest is the fact that they haven't taken a breather for long enough to give us a lower High confirmation on the weekly swing chart. It been straight down.


Charts
The Chart this week for the DOW again highlights the Trend Line from the May 2001 high through to the recent Jan 2002 high. Also highlighted is the Price retracement levels from the recent low. Assuming a continuation of the bearishness, I have marked up the recent decline 902 points and attached it to last weeks high which gives a range equality target of 9190.
The S&P this week has the Square of 9 highlighted, this time from the Sept low after the Support line mentioned last week was broken, we now have new support at the 1072 level on the SO9 and at 1061 at the 50% retracement level.
The NASDAQ has been going straight down. After blasting through the 38.2% and the 50% retracement levels it is now approaching the 61.8% level. Also highlighted on the chart is the Time frame (110 days) for the rise, and the 55 day ( 50% ) line for the decline which gives us the 5th March (this is indicative only). The 45 deg Solar time is also highlighted showing Fri 22nd was 45 deg from the Jan 9 high.

DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



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