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24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See
Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due
to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the
DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information
and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive
their own forecasts on these assumptions.
Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should
look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance
is the 180 week cycle.
We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from
the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower)
high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not
canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into
account.
Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992
low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant
1972 Aug High and Oct low
Short Term Perspective
Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See
Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy
Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles
are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002
Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )
As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of
possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks
in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong
events.
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| Summary for Week Ending 21st September 2002
A week of ongoing declines this week, although as was indicated last week,
this should not have been much of a surprise. The news on Tuesday of Iraq
agreeing to weapons inspectors pushed things higher briefly, but most
surprisingly this didnt even last for the session. On balance it could
be expected that this kind of news would be enough for the bulls to make
a stand, but the accompanying meltdown was a strong indicator of what
to expect for the next 2-3 days.
Looking at the charts for this week, the action after Tuesdays Outside
signal day was fairly simple to follow. The expectation was for at least
a 2-3 day decline depending on strength, which was orderly. A stronger
push down may have shortened the duration of the decline as price would
have over balanced time. There was an indicator of a possible COT on Friday,
coupled with some more importatnt dates occuring at this time. We have
the equinox this weekend, and the anniversary ( 360 deg ) of last years
Sept low.
The coming week should be interesting with the above mentioned dates coming
into play. The action for the close on Friday was interesting in that
it held, so the sentiment could be that despite the falls for the week,
players are still willing to be long over the weekend. Using this as a
platform we can see the charts show a distinct 3 wave decline in an almost
classic Elliot pattern so we could make the assumption that the Friday
COT may be the one to watch. The danger here of course is that this would
be blatantly bucking the trend, a dangerous practise if your money is
on the line. Should we see a rally then I would expect the decline from
Tuesday to be taken out in no more than 3 days and then followed by a
Higher swing low as confirmation. Any longer and I would be suspicious
that its only a counter trend rally and the declines will continue.
Swing Charts
DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ
Not much new here, the weeks declines confirmed the patterns.
Charts
DJIA
The chart this week highlights the Price Retracements as well as the
Solar degree intervals from the July low indicating 24th as the 60 deg
point, which also lines up with 360 deg from the Sept 2001 low.
S&P
The chart this week highlights the Price Retracements and similar
to the DJIA also the Solar deg intervals are marked. I have also
included two Gann Fans highlighting possible support and resistance levels.
NASDAQ
The chart this week simply displays the twin time ranges as well as
the Solar degree intervals. There is no much to say about the NASDAQ at
the moment as it appears to be in two minds.. either make new lows or
bounce along the current support areas. It needs some time to work itself
out
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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