Summary for Week Ending 20th April 2002

A week of high drama with headlines making the major directional plays. A light aircraft crashing into a High-rise Building in Milan delivered a significant shock to the markets on Thursday, demonstrating how sensitive markets are post Sept 11. The FBI announcement of possible terrorist activity within the mainland banking sector hardly caused a ripple in comparison, further displaying that you can play the same card twice in one week. Overall is was a good week for the NASDAQ and S&P both making new Swing Highs although the Dow was seemingly less impressed and managed to create a confirmation Lower Swing High.


Swing Charts

DJIA The downward swing pattern has been reconfirmed this week by the Sharp downward move on Thursday following the events in Milan. Looking at the intra day chart however, the recovery was as swift as the decline, so perhaps this new low could be considered a blip on the radar and we can look forward to some consistent gains this week. Short and medium term however is still down, although we are overdue for a significant countertrend rally.

S&P500 A Higher swing High this week on Wednesday, the first since 19th Mar has finally broken the Bear run swing pattern and place the chart into Bear-Neutral mode at present. There have been no significant points hit so it can be treated similar to the DOW and as a rally against the trend. Technically we would be looking for standard retracement levels to provide resistance to any upward swings. This analysis would remain in place until a secondary ( confirmation) Higher Swing High-Higher Swing low had taken place.

NASDAQ The Daily swing chart managed a strong mini rally this week, after rising off the low that was mentioned last week. The Swing up traveled 108 points with the Downswing caused by Thursdays ruckus traveling 54 points ( 50%). The the S&P and the NASDAQ gave up Inside days on Friday so any directional markers are not forthcoming. As highlighted on this weeks chart, the rally which terminated on Wednesday, also can very close to the 50% retracement range. Expectation would be for a 3 wave rally against the main trend with 2 waves already completed. Wave equality of 108 points added to Thursday low gives us a price target of around 1817 points.


Charts
This weeks DOW chart has the secondary support line marked up as well as the original Range Square off the Double top. Support was found at the expected 100% level but was short-lived. Looking a bit further out, we have 90 Solar degrees from the Jan 30 low coming in on 30th April.

The S&P Chart this week has Standard retracement levels Highlighted as well as the Square of 9 off the recent 19th Mar High. Also highlighted is one of the Price Ranges that was indicated on Last weeks chart ( See Chart ). This is simply a follow-up showing how Ranges do repeat.

The NASDAQ chart this week has the recent Range equality that was highlighted on last weeks chart (See Chart ). The Time range equality terminates on the 24th April which brings us close to the above forecast indicating a COT around the 28th April as well as the Speed lines taken from the previous rally against the trend.

DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart