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24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See
Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due
to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the
DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information
and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive
their own forecasts on these assumptions.
Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should
look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance
is the 180 week cycle.
We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from
the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower)
high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not
canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into
account.
Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992
low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant
1972 Aug High and Oct low
Short Term Perspective
Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See
Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy
Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles
are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002
Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )
As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of
possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks
in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong
events.
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Summary for Week Ending 15th June 2002
Yet another week of falls across all three markets. It was mentioned last
week the observation that the markets had only managed to produce 1 day
against the trend movements before succumbing to the primary trend. This
behavior was evident again this week It is worth mentioning again that
this is a very weak signal, showing that sentiment is definitely down
and any enthusiasm for the upside is extremely short lived. The Deep decline
on Fridays open also points to the fact that Terrorist attacks against
offshore US interests are still keenly felt on the mainland. Based upon
this behavior any confirmed attack on the US mainland would be capable
of producing a catastrophic sellof. Looking at Fridays action, all three
markets bounced off strong technical support levels, which are the basis
of this weeks charts. With the trend so firmly entrenched, these support
levels should be treated as technical stopping points. Any change in trend
should be confirmed by consecutive higher Highs and Higher Low swings.
Swing Charts
DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ
Just like last week...All swing Patters are Down !
Charts
DOW This weeks chart shows the range square highlighting the 9260
level of support ( actual 9229 ). Unlike the NASDAQ and the S&P 500,
this is a weak line as the market managed to penetrate this line by 30
points. The outlook for this market in the medium term is grim, however
we are overdue for some short-term bullishness. Highlighted also is the
60 day initial decline, with the current decline running to 28 days (
30 including the weekend).
S&P The chart this week shows the wave equality highlighted
( almost exact ! ). The push down and subsequent recovery on Friday mirrors
the previous Friday and as such has the first part of a possible reversal
pattern. The coming week has us looking for confirmation, elsewise, new
lows again has all eyes looking at the next possible support level.
NASDAQ This weeks chart highlights the Range Square giving us Fridays
termination point. Similar to the other 2 markets, Volume is not an indicator
just yet. We had a mini-spike in Volume in the previous week, but that
simply gave us a short-lived min-bounce.
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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