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| Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P
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| The following forecasts are based upon a selection of
primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding
Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should
not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend
will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in
trend should occur on the given date. |
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| Summary for Week Ending 15th March 2002 After lasts weeks excitement, thing were a little more subdued this week, with all markets reacting off the 180 deg line from Sept 11. Both the Dow and the S&P were dull for most of the week slowly melting but not displaying any vigor in the downward slide. The NASDAQ made a reach forward on Monday to the 61.8% retracement level highlighted in last weeks chart and then headed South with much abandon. Swing Charts DJIA No change to the Swing charts for the Weekly swings this week as the trend has slowed, but the Inside Bar this week has no effect on the overall pattern. The Daily swing chart has produced a lower High lower low pattern this week, with Fridays movement producing the second lower swing up. We can only await next weeks movements to confirm the Daily down swing pattern by producing a lower swing high ( below 10683). S&P500 The weekly swings have no change as the movement this week produced an Inside Bar, but essentially the indicators are still Up. The slight softening in sentiment off the abovementioned 180 deg line combined with the run up on Friday has the Daily swing making a higher swing Low, although there is considerable Technical resistance around the 1175 level. NASDAQ Similar to the S&P, the Weekly Swings are still essentially up, although the reaction off the 61.8% level combined with the 180 Solar Degree line may indicate that things for the NASDAQ are not all that rosy. Bearing in mind previous postings have mentioned that the NASDAQ is lagging behind the other markets considerably as far as technical performance is concerned. Charts Not much to say this week as we await the 180 Solar degree line from Sept 21. The dates, as outlined above may carry over to the following week, so watching price action will be the most important indicator at present. What should be looked for is price violence, that is, look for price movement to be swift. It is this violence in the market that is the greatest indicator for the long-term COT date being effective. The S&P this week simply has the 1175 range marked on the chart, as this area has been dominating proceedings for some time now. There have been three attempts at this area with all three being repelled at the gate. From a purely technical perspective, the fourth attempt should be successful. As with the Dow, look for price action as we approach the 180 degree COT date. The NASDAQ this week highlights the Price Retracements of last week and also has the Time range outlined highlighting Monday as 61.8% of the time range of the run up. Possible indicators to pattern, is the likelihood of a classic 3 wave decline, with this week producing the first leg of that pattern. The COT date is approaching, however as previously outlined, this may carry over to the following Monday. DJIA See Chart S&P 500 See Chart NASDAQ See Chart |
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