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24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See
Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due
to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the
DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information
and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive
their own forecasts on these assumptions.
Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should
look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance
is the 180 week cycle.
We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from
the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower)
high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not
canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into
account.
Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992
low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant
1972 Aug High and Oct low
Short Term Perspective
Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See
Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy
Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles
are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002
Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )
As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of
possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks
in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong
events.
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| Summary for Week Ending 14th September 2002
As expected from last weeks commentary, there was a push upwards in the
Markets, although it was less than convincing. The memorial services conducted
internationally for the 9/11 attacks certainly subdued participation on
Wednesday but this was to be expected.
Last week I mentioned that we could expect a move forward and that it
would only last a 'little while'. I did not expect it to last only 4 days
but the market was kind enough to give a signal day on Wednesday to tip
off that things were not going well. That was not the only signal that
any Calls were in danger. Looking closely at the chart we can see that
the final swing down from the 30th Aug took 3 days. If the push up was
to have any impetus at all then it would be expected that this range would
be captured within a corresponding 3 day period. The chart shows that
coming into Wednesday ( the 4th Day up), the market still had not reached
the previous swing high, so we know that the movement forward was under
strain. The action on Wednesday ( open low...scream up and then collapse)
was the final indicator that the minor run was over and that Calls ( or
longs) would be under pressure. This was confirmed on Thursday and to
a lesser extent on Friday.
The coming week is difficult to pick at this point, although going with
the trend is the most likely option to take. Upward movement has so far
appeared strained, and the 4 day rally has almost been swallowed in two
days of falls. Volume is telling us nothing and the DOW is at a possible
double bottom formation, although this is not yet confirmed. Friday is
100% of the previous range forward ( see S&P500 Chart ) and the next
point of interest is the 21st-24th Sept. It should be remembered that
we are expecting a retest of the lows and that the above range is within
60 degrees of the July 24 low. The previous decline unfolded in a simple
fashion( 1 day reversals) so the Elliot law of alternation would indicate
that the next wave down should be complex. This means turbulence.
Swing Charts
DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ
All three markets have produced a clear lower swing high giving a very
bearish outlook. As mentioned above, there is a possible double bottom
for the DJIA but this has not been confirmed by the other markets.
Charts
DJIA
The chart this week highlights the Static Time tool indicating the
Friday mark as well as the Price Retracement.
S&P
The chart this week highlights the the Time range signaling Friday
as well as indicating the possibility of a Range equality outcome for
the current decline. Interestingly, this terminated very close to the
5th Aug low which would be expected to at least provide some technical
support.
NASDAQ
The chart this week shows the Gann fan highlighting the possible support
along the 1x1 line. The distinct lower high is a bearish pattern but this
is balanced by the rising Higher Lows which ultimately gives a horizontal
triangle or compression pattern.
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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