General
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2002 Reports
  Dec 20th 2002
  Dec 13th 2002
  Dec 6th 2002
  Nov 29th 2002
  Nov 22nd 2002
  Nov 15th 2002
  Nov 1st 2002
  Oct 26th 2002
  Oct 19th 2002
  Oct 12th 2002
  Oct 5th 2002
  Sept 28th 2002
  Sept 21st 2002
  Sept 14th 2002
  Sept 7th 2002
  Aug 31st 2002
  Aug 24th 2002
  Aug 17th 2002
  Aug 10th 2002
  Aug 3rd 2002
  Jul 27th 2002
  Jul 20th 2002
  Jul 13th 2002
  Jul 6th 2002
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  Jun 22nd 2002
  Jun 15th 2002
  Jun 8th 2002
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  May 25th 2002
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  May 4th 2002
  Apr 27th 2002
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  Apr 13th 2002
  Apr 6th 2002
  Mar 29th 2002
  Mar 22th 2002
  Mar 15th 2002
  Mar 8th 2002
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  Feb 22nd 2002
  Feb 15th 2002
  Feb 8th 2002
  Feb 1st 2002
  Jan 25th 2002
  Jan 11th 2002
  Jan 4th 2002
2006
2005
2004
2003
2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
It should be noted that the material presented here is not necessarily the only possibility. The purpose of this section is to encourage the reader to LOOK for themselves, and by using the tools provided with the Professional V3.0, such as Time ranges and Squares, the reader can see for themselves how various movements are interconnected with the past.

The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Not all the possibilities are covered, just the ones that are most prominent.

24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive their own forecasts on these assumptions.

Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance is the 180 week cycle.

We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower) high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into account.

Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992 low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant 1972 Aug High and Oct low

Short Term Perspective

Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002

Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )

As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong events.



Summary for Week Ending 13th July 2002
Yet another week of 'more of the same'. For those who have been following the past month or two of declines should have noticed by now that when markets fall as they have been doing, that there is little technical skill required to follow it. I have been saying for some weeks now that all three markets have been performing 1 and 2 day countertrend rallies before resuming the downward march. The ability to count is all that is required.

The most popular question on everyone's mind is of course "When will it end ?". The answer to this is provided by history: When the Bulls become Bears. Also pronouncements by people in Authority (who should know better) that the market has bottomed is also a sure signal that it hasn't. When the pronouncements are that 'We don't know when it will stop !" is when it will stop. This contrarian viewpoint is generally quite effective when looking at the big picture.

Another tip for newbies. Keep an eye on the Headlines in national newspapers. When the Parlous state of the market makes it to the Headlines on Page one, the end of the major downward trend is nigh. Couple this with a nearby blowout in volume and you will get some very good signals. They may not be technical, but they are relatively reliable.


Swing Charts

DJIA
, S&P500, NASDAQ
Just like last week...All swing Patters are Down !


Charts
DOW This weeks chart is again a weekly log showing the support line running from the 1987 low. As can also be seen is the market stuck its nose just below it on Thursday only to rally strongly until it tested the low again of Friday. The Announcement during the week by the Treasury Secretary that the market had bottomed simply shows the level of ignorance that can be found at the mandarin level. If a majority of the market is looking at this line, it will not hold . Its as simple as that.

S&P The S&P this week is a weekly showing the 153.5 Square from the Sept 2001 lows and a Price square from the 1552 high. The 50% point at 776 is not that far away. We await Jul 25.


NASDAQ This week the chart is a weekly highlighting the Price Square from the 2000 high as well as a support line showing where we are now in comparison to late 1998.



DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart





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