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Summary for Week Ending 13th April 2002
The bear is still roaming the forest with all three markets again posting
losses for the week. The mention last week of oil prices appears to have
been timely, with major whipsaws in price occurring. It is worth noting
however, that unless events in the Middle East get completely out of hand,
the influence in this area is most likely to wane as all possible scenarios
should now be factored into the market. From a technical perspective,
the DOW has broken the primary support line (see
last weeks chart) and is now headed towards the secondary support
line, which if hit next week, indicates price around the low 9900's. This
secondary support line is also very close to the 1x1 line (price step
5) from 30 Jan 2002 low.
Swing Charts
DJIA Just as last week the DOW confirmed the DOWN pattern, it produces
a lower low and a Higher High for the week, just to confuse all players.
The Previous swing down was 354 points, and the current swing down made
a low on Friday also of 354 points. At this point it is worth watching
and action this coming week may go towards reconfirming the downward trend.
S&P500 The Daily swing Chart, remains in a confirmed Downwards
pattern with the current swing down traversing 29 points. Previous swings
down have been 22,34,25,35 and 22 points. The Technical support line alluded
to last week, held on Monday but collapsed under considerable pressure
on Thursday.
NASDAQ The Daily swing chart remains in DOWN mode with action
this week reconfirming the strong DOWN swing pattern. Of interest is last
weeks comment regarding the swing range of 95 points which did hold, but
not for very long. The current swing down has so far traversed 71 points,
with the previous swings being 100,67,66,95 and 69. Distance has approached
the previous swing (69 points) and can be expected to offer some support
early in the week. The Trend however is distinctly down, and as I mentioned
last week, until we get indications otherwise (Higher Swing High-Higher
Swing Low), concentration should be placed on the strength of the Downward
swings. Rally's against the main trend should be watched for technical
resistance (50% retracements etc).
Charts
This weeks DOW chart has the secondary support line marked up as well
as a speculative Range Equality (899 points) highlighting a possible terminus
for the current downward trend.
The S&P Chart this week has a series of intertwining ranges marked
up, with the most interesting being the one that terminates near the 38.2%
retracement level at 1088. On the Square of 9, the 45% line cuts through
at 1089 so there is an expectation that this level will offer some support
should the current downwards movement persist. Also marked up are the
Speed Lines of the previous decline, indicating that the underlying momentum
for this decline, is mirroring the pressure of the previous.
The NASDAQ chart this week has the Speed lines highlighted showing that
the current decline has far less of the impetus of the previous. Also
highlighted are the Major retracement levels, and the recent Range equality
that terminated on Thursday. The Time range equality terminates on the
24th April which brings us close to the above forecast indicating a COT
around the 28th April.
DJIA See
Chart
S&P 500 See
Chart
NASDAQ See
Chart
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