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| Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P
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| The following forecasts are based upon a selection of
primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding
Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should
not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend
will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in
trend should occur on the given date. How this date is arrived at will be
published in the week following the COT date irregardless as to the success
or failure of the forecast. |
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| Summary for Week Ending 11th Jan 2002 DJIA See Chart The forecast COT for the 9th of Jan fizzled producing nothing more than an outside day, which is a weak technical indicator for a change in trend. Monday produced the high for the week, with slides continuing into Friday broken only by the outside day on Wednesday. It is worth repeating again that each swing forward is getting smaller, which under Gann's rules is a strong indicator that the main trend is showing signs of weakness. This weeks chart has the Square of 11909 ( all time high ) highlighted showing how well the market has responded in the past to this square, especially as the market is approaching the 1x1 line again. Also Highlighted is the Solar Degrees ( 30 deg Division ) from the important major Sept low as well as from the weaker Dec 14th low. As can be seen, 30 deg from the Dec low gives us the 12th Jan again and the Dec Low is indicating a possible COT on Fri 18th Jan. Should the 12th Jan hold, then we can expect the market to make rises in the coming week, perhaps leading up to this next minor COT. The previously mentioned dates around the 22nd still hold and we will wait for these in the following week. S&P 500 See Chart Once again tracking movement in the DJIA, the S&P 500 is showing the same indicators as that for the Dow. Monday produced the high for the week, and the COT for the 9th Jan also produced an outside day and that's all but this failed to hold the market and slides continued for the rest of the week. Looking at the chart we can see that movement is beginning to push sideways without any real direction either up or down, although the recent strong rises since the Sept Low would indicate that some equally stronger corrective movement is likely. The price area mentioned last week on the Square of 9 failed to ignite, however with only very minor new highs achieved. This weeks chart highlights the Square of 945 ( the recent Sept low ) which also highlights the swiftness of the current upward trend. Also highlighted is the Square of 9 from the May 2001 high showing the level of resistance around the 1170 - 1180 level. New readers to this section should also look at previous reports covering this issue ( see 23 Nov and 7 Dec ). Since we are still in lockstep with the Dow, expect the S&P to also follow the Dow COT dates. Those readers with the Pro Version should look at how the Square of 9 Levels line up when taken from both the Sept low and the May high. Its quite interesting ! NASDAQ See Chart The NASDAQ this week managed to shrug off its dependency on the other markets and decided to exhibit some personality of its own. The market managed to make its High for the week on the 9th Jan, although funnily enough, it was not part of the forecast COT range dates for this particular market. This week chart show the Range for the previous upswing ( 4th Apr - 22nd May ) compared to the current upward swing. Since we believe that history has a tendency to repeat, the Ranges are always important to watch for a possible change in trend. Also highlighted on this weeks chart is the Gann Fan taken from the May high showing the market touching the important 1x1 line on Wednesdays high. With Major Price Range equality giving a change in Trend, we would be looking for confirmation, i.e. lower lows and lower highs...and it would be imprudent to declare that the current run is over..not just yet. We are still looking towards the 22nd area for the forecast COT. |
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