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2002 Reports
  Dec 20th 2002
  Dec 13th 2002
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2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in trend should occur on the given date.
25th January 2002 - Outlook for DJIA - S&P 500 -NASDAQ
As we approach the March equinox, a series of interesting numbers are emerging.
180 weeks (1260 days) from the 8th Oct Significant low gives us the date : 21st March 2002.
180 (Sq144 *1.25) Days from the recent Sept 2001 low gives us the date : 20th March 2002.
180 Solar Degrees from the Sept 2001 Low Gives us the date : 18th March 2002
182 Days ( Gann Emblem ) from the Sept 2002 Low gives us the date : 22nd March 2002
521 Days (18 Oct 99 - 22 Mar 01) from 18th Oct 2000 Significant low gives : 23rd Mar 2002
439 Days (8 Mar 00 - 21 May 01) from 4th Jan 2001 significant high gives 19th Mar 2002
The March Equinox falls at 12.19 am on the 21st March 2002

Taking the above numbers into account and the fact that the last two equinoxes have proven useful, then we can make an assumption as to the upcoming Dates. As can be seen, there is a relatively wide variety in dates, however, that average for all the times falls around the 20th and 21st of March, so a change of trend can be expected on or around these days.


Summary for Week Ending 8th Feb 2002

A bit of a mixture this week, with the Dow holding its own, to the NASDAQ running downhill. Enron still manages to stay in the headlines and 'Dodgy' accounting practices are now the target of investigators, not just for the failed Enron but any company that appears to have 'irregular' practices. Every now and again, the market need to take a shower and remove the built up grime. It did so after 1987 and again in 1998 with the Asian crisis. Perhaps its bathtime again.

As in the previous weeks, we are still following the weekly Swing Charts. I had expected the all three markets to hold above their respective lows however only the Dow has managed to do so, although in a very unconvincing manner. The NASDAQ this week simply maintained the bearish sentiment and slowly melted and the S&P showed some resilience later in the week, but this too has been less that convincing. On the Weekly Chart, the Dow has formed an inside Day and both the S&P and NASDAQ formed lower lows, so for these two the Swing is still down. Looking at daily Swing Charts, both the NASDAQ and the S&P are forming Lower Highs and lower lows, maintaining the short term bearish outlook, and the Dow has formed a Higher High and Lower Low...giving us an uncertain market.

The Charts this week highlight the Price Retracement levels for the previous major upswing. Also highlighted this week is the Square of 144 with various scales applied to each market ( Dow 20, S&P 2, NASDAQ 10). Tuesday Feb 12 is 144 days from the Sept low, and is worth watching as the Jan 7th High also came in on a vibration of 144 ( 75% - 108 days ). Again the major retracement levels are the price areas to watch.


DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



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