Summary for Week Ending 6th April 2002

Another bearish week with forecast profit warning from some major stocks keeping market players on edge and the escalating violence in the Middle East keeping everyone else on edge. Should the problems in Middle East get too far out of hand, expect events to place considerable pressure on oil prices which in turn will place considerable pressure on the World economy. Keeping with this scenario, stock prices can be expected to continue on a South/South-East heading whilst the high level of violence and uncertainty remains.

Swing Charts

DJIA The Daily swing has reconfirmed the DOWN pattern this week forming the another Lower swing Low on Wednesday after hitting a technical support line (see chart below). The Pattern is now primarily bearish, with the upper price level of 10537 required to break the pattern from bear to neutral.

S&P500 The Daily swing Chart, similar to the DOW, is in a confirmed Downwards pattern with the current swing down traversing 35 points. Previous swings down have been 25,34 and 22 points. There is also considerable interest in a technical support level similar to the one that stopped the DOW ( see below)

NASDAQ The Daily swing chart is still in DOWN mode with action this week giving us yet another Lower Swing High and Lower Swing Low. This last swing down has so far traversed 95 points, with the previous swings being 67,66 and 100. Distance is approaching the first swing down (100 points) and should afford some support, however the Trend is distinctly down, and until we get indications otherwise (Higher Swing High-Higher Swing Low), concentration should be placed on the strength of the Downward swings. Rally's against the main trend should be watched for technical resistance (50% retracements etc).


Charts
This weeks DOW chart has the trend line from the Sept 2001 low marked showing the bounce point for the Dow on Wednesday. Also marked up are the two primary retracement level indicators for the current movement should the trendline fail to hold, and an intermediate parallel channel that indicates the next likely technical support line.

The S&P Chart this week is almost identical to last weeks and has price retracement levels highlighted, which show that the current decline has not bounced off any technical levels. There is a trendline running from the Sept 2001 low which crosses the 61.8% retracement level around 8th April. Also of interest is the Price Range equality of 42 points showing a terminus at the same 61.8% retracement level. Only time will tell whether the trend line will offer the same support that the DOW experienced

The NASDAQ chart this week has the Gann Fan highlighted, the Primary price retracement levels, and a speculative Range equality (402 points) proposition highlighted. The slight penetration of the 2x1 line shows there is still some support on this trend line, which may be given some life this week, however the trend is still down, and as such, concentration is focused on the downward movements.

DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart