Summary for Week Ending 4th May 2002

A mixed week this week, with the markets following from the previous weeks close and opening lower on Monday and then managing to claw back for most of this week. This action was most evident in the DOW and less so in the S&P. The NASDAQ appeared to be mirroring action in the S&P however Friday saw a continuation of the sharp falls and finished the week with new lows for the movement. Looking at the rally that occurred this week, it should be noted the the DOW especially rose on decreasing volume. That is a weak signal, indicating the pack is not entirely impressed with the upward movement and would require more convincing before a sustained upward push came to fruition. As expected, the technical levels mentioned last week for both the NASDAQ and the S&P did not hold through Monday and managed to find support at the next levels.(See this weeks charts)
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Swing Charts

DJIA The beginning of the Week saw a continuation of the Downwards pattern however new swing highs were achieved by Thursday, negating the pattern back to bear-neutral. The last three swings down have been 369,471 and 361 and the previous 3 upswings have been 329,264 and 416. This last swing up has been the largest since February, however as previously mentioned, has been on lowering volume, and as such should be handled suspiciously.

S&P500 A continuation of the Downwards pattern saw price approach the technically significant 50% retracement level. Opening lower on Monday as expected gave us the low for the week, and prices started the upswing movement, turning lower again on Friday, producing a Lower High confirming the Downwards pattern.

NASDAQ The Swing Downwards pattern remains unchanged this week, and this week provided an acceleration on the movement, perhaps indicating that the end is close.

Charts
This weeks chart has the 12x1 line running from the high, showing the reluctance of the market to penetrate this line. Also last week was mentioned the 30th April solar degree point, which coupled with the 28th April point to give us the change in trend on the Monday the 29th. This is just outside the COT that was outlined to occur 21st-28th April. The level of strength to be expected out of this COT remains to be seen, with all indications being bearish, most notably the volume figures for the end of last week.

The S&P Chart this week has Standard retracement levels Highlighted as well as the Square of 9 off the recent 19th Mar High displaying Mondays bounce point off the 300 Deg level. We have also approaching the 1x2 line and are very close to the 50% retracement level. This clustering of support will be interesting to watch as the mood is still down. Keep an eye on the volume to confirm.

The NASDAQ chart this week displays the Static Time zone indicating 5th May as the 50% level. We had a reaction on the 25% level, an so a reaction here is not unexpected. The brief penetration of the 1x1 line is significant as is the 222-226 range equality.

DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart