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| Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P
500 |
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| The following forecasts are based upon a selection of
primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding
Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should
not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend
will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in
trend should occur on the given date. How this date is arrived at will be
published in the week following the COT date irregardless as to the success
or failure of the forecast. |
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| Summary for Week Ending 4th Jan 2002 DJIA See Chart This week saw strong gains after the low on Wednesday which came in around the 61% level of the previous upward swing. The last three swings up are as follows :
It should be noted that each swing forward is getting smaller, which under Gann's rules is a strong indicator of the termination of a trend. From a technical perspective, each of these ranges added to the Jan 2 low gives various supporting levels against the falls leading to the Sept low. Of interesting significance is the 851 point range which comes out very close to the 19th July high which was the last major high before the collapse, and should be considered a significant point of resistance. With the forecast COT due this week, this weeks chart has the major forecast ranges highlighted as well as a couple of Time Extension Ranges, both of which are pointing to Sat Jan 12th. With last years January run expiring on the 14th Jan, perhaps the 12th Jan will be a date worth looking into. As time approaches, price and market action will be an excellent indicator S&P 500 See Chart Tracking movement in the DJIA, the S&P 500 is showing the same indicators as that for the Dow. The expected January movement is going along quite smoothly, neatly mirroring activity in th the other markets. This is probably a factor of the Holiday Season, and the S&P could be expected to revert to its own personality as soon as more players return to the game. This weeks chart highlights the major ranges that are indicators to the expected Jan 9th COT. Also highlighted is the Time Extension that similar to the Dow indicating a possible COT on the 12th Jan. This being a Saturday, we would be looking at price action on the Friday as well as the following Monday. Regarding price, the 1207 range should be watched carefully as its 720 degrees out on the Square of 9 from the 945 point Sept low. NASDAQ See Chart As with the other markets, The Nasdaq is following in Lock Step, with gains this week mirrored in the other two major indices. The COT dates forecast for the S&P and teh DOW for this week, if effective, will have some bearing on this market, however we are sticking with the current COT dates that are derived from this market as an individual. This week chart shows the major ranges that indicate the forecast COT. Also Highlighted is the similar Time Extension range for the other two markets, indicating that the COT was Friday the 4th Jan. Mondays action will either confirm or deny this event. |
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