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  Dec 20th 2002
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2003
2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
It should be noted that the material presented here is not necessarily the only possibility. The purpose of this section is to encourage the reader to LOOK for themselves, and by using the tools provided with the Professional V3.0, such as Time ranges and Squares, the reader can see for themselves how various movements are interconnected with the past.

The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Not all the possibilities are covered, just the ones that are most prominent.

24th May 2002 - Outlook for S&P 500 (See Chart Provided)
The following is based upon analysis of the S&P 500 index. Due to the nature of markets, there are numerous similarities with the DJIA and as such there is no point in duplicating this information and I would encourage readers to look at the other markets and derive their own forecasts on these assumptions.

Long Term Perspective.
When looking at the market from a distance Gann said that we should look at the 30, 20, 15, 10 7, and 5 year cycles. Also of importance is the 180 week cycle.

We are approaching the end of the 15 year (180 months) cycle from the 1987 high which occurred on 25th Aug 1987. The second (lower) high before the crash occurred on 2nd Oct 1987. Information not canvassed here is the Nov Low, although it too should be taken into account.

Looking backwards from August/Oct 2002
The 5 year cycle lining up with Oct Highs in 1997.
The 7 year cycle gives us nothing
The 10 year cycle has a very weak alliance with the Oct 5th 1992 low.
The 15 year cycle lining up with the Aug 1987 high.
The 20 year cycle lines up with the Major low in Aug 1982
and the 30 year cycle has a weak alliance with the insignificant 1972 Aug High and Oct low

Short Term Perspective

Fibonacci Time Zones :
610 days from the Jan 31 2001 High :- 3rd Oct 2002
377 Days from the Sept 21 2001 low : 3rd Oct 2002
233 Days from the 7th Jan 2002 High :- 28th Aug 2002
Time Space Division
24th Mar 2000 - 21st Sept 2001 * 61.8% gives :- 24th Aug 2002
Time Ranges
The most prominent are on the Chart supplied (See Chart)
Squares
The S&P has been in a 153/4 cycle since Mar 2000 (courtesy Bill McLaren)
Placing a Gann Square grid of 153.5 on the Chart, terminating Cycles are visible from the following points:
From 22nd May 2001 forward - 3 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 31st Jan 2001 forward - 4 Squares terminate 8th Oct 2002
From 21st Dec 2000 forward - 4 Squares terminate 27th Aug 2002
From 1st Sept 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 9th Oct 2002
From 17th July 2000 forward - 5 Squares terminate 24th Aug 2002
From 24th Mar 2000 forward - 6 Squares terminate 1st Oct 2002

Other Dates to watch :
21st Sept (360 solar deg from Sept 2001 low)
8th July ( 180 solar degrees from 7th Jan 2002 high )

As can be seen from the above analysis, there is expectation of possible COT around the last week in August and the first 2 weeks in October. Historically, these periods have produced some strong events.


Summary for Week Ending 1st June 2002

A somewhat poor performance this week, shortened by the memorial day break. All three markets headed south from the start, and managed to find some support on Friday. The 'Danger Zones' alluded to in last weeks report ( previous swing lows ) were all taken out on Tuesday and things looked grim. Last week a continuation of the upward swings was to be expected this week, and any failure would be deemed to be dangerous to the underlying assumption that the market had bottomed out on May 7th. Hence the Pattern breakdown levels were highlighted last week.


Swing Charts

DJIA The falls this week has placed the Daily swing pattern into a bearish pattern, and this can be coupled with the weekly swing chart which is decidedly bearish with consecutive lower highs and lows.

S&P500 Similar to the DOW, this weeks activity has turned all the bullish pattern on its head. The Daily swing chart is displaying a partially confirmed bearish pattern ( a lower low is required ), however the weekly swing chart is now in a confirmed bear pattern with lower highs and lower lows now in place.

NASDAQ The NASDAQ too is in bear confirmation pattern, and at first glance appears that the lows of May 7th were intermediate. Technically, full intent would be displayed with a lower swing high that terminated below the previous swing low. As with the other Markets, we have seen 'against the trend' rallies continuing to eat into the range of the previous swing, and have yet to see a clear break that would display serious intent for the trend ( in either direction !)

Charts
DOW This weeks chart has the 90 Solar degree line highlighted as well as the 90 day range which terminated on Thursday. Price range equality couples with the obvious support level of the Jan 30th low. The May 7th low is also 'obvious' support and a break below this level would automatically have all analysts looking towards the Jan 30 low as the next braking point.

S&P The chart this week has the Solar degree frequencies highlighted, indicating a possible COT on Friday 7th. This lines up with the DOW which indicating an end to the 90 day cycle. Looking at a continuation of the downward pressure, there is a minor price cluster occurring around the 1023 level.

NASDAQ This weeks NASDAQ has the 402 range revisited as well as a series of other price ranges which may also figure in the ultimate support level. There are no time zones indicated as these can be taken from both the S&P and the Dow. If we do get a bottom this week, then a strong swing up with the prerequisite accompanying volume would be expected as a confirmation signal.



DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



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