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| Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P
500 |
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| The following forecasts are based upon a selection of
primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding
Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should
not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend
will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in
trend should occur on the given date. |
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| Summary for Week Ending 1st March 2002 The Dow and the S&P finished off the week with a bang and the Nasdaq managed to finish with a pop. Constant rises throughout the week where not arrested, and received a boost on Friday with the release of consumer spending figures. The Dow and S&P managed its largest one day rises for some time, showing that there is an amount of pent up fury that is waiting to be unleashed, so any good news ( after all the bad news recently) is a good enough reason to start buying again. DJIA As mentioned last week, the Swing charts for the Daily swings were showing consistent higher highs and lower lows, and this was further consolidated this week with the market making new highs for the cycle. This bullish daily tone has finally translated across to the weekly swing charts which are now in neutral ( short term ) and bullish ( long term). S&P500 The Weekly swing Bear confirmation of last was short lived with new highs this week overtaking the previous swing highs, leaving us with a neutral pattern ( short term ) and bullish long term. The Daily swings have a double bottom at 1074, from where the market launched this weeks activity. We are now looking for confirmation ( higher Highs and higher lows ) on the daily for upside confirmation. NASDAQ The Daily Swing Charts this week has managed a higher high and higher low swing confirming the short term upward movement. Due to that depth and speed of the recent decline, conformation on the weekly may be sometime in coming, also with the current skittish nature of the market, concentration on the Daily Swings is more appropriate. Charts The Chart this week for the DOW is a weekly chart highlighting the upside Trendline Breakout. Also highlighted is the 1x1 line down from the 11909 high and the 2x1 line up from the 9612 low. The pointer on the chart marks where the two lines crossover, which is 'around' the March 20-28 area. This is of interest as the March equinox is approaching. The S&P this week again has the Square of 9 highlighted, this time from the recent Jan high and Feb low. The Square of 9 has been very kind to us with the S&P in the past as is a very useful indicator to support and resistance in this particular market. It should be remembered that unlike the DOW, the S&P has not made new highs for the cycle, and does have considerable distance to travel before it does. With the NASDAQ, the 45 solar Deg mentioned last week has obviously held and the action this week has created a good platform for a run upwards. The Higher High/Higher low pattern is an excellent launch pad as it provides a tight stop loss area should things go bad. Of note is the swing up at 106 points which was the range of the previous run against the trend. Importantly however is the Channel highlighted. As can be seen, the market is tracking along the inside of the upper line, and a breakout above this line should be viewed as significant. DJIA See Chart S&P 500 See Chart NASDAQ See Chart |
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