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2002 Reports
  Dec 20th 2002
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2001
Outlook for Selected Markets. DJIA - NASDAQ - S&P 500
The following forecasts are based upon a selection of primary tools and the application of a number of simple Gann rules regarding Time based analysis and forecasting. The 'Change of Trend' (COT) dates should not be taken to represent dates upon which a significant change of trend will occur. Suffice to say that according to rules applied, a change in trend should occur on the given date.
25th January 2002 - Outlook for DJIA - S&P 500 -NASDAQ
As we approach the March equinox, a series of interesting numbers are emerging.
180 weeks (1260 days) from the 8th Oct Significant low gives us the date : 21st March 2002.
180 (Sq144 *1.25) Days from the recent Sept 2001 low gives us the date : 20th March 2002.
180 Solar Degrees from the Sept 2001 Low Gives us the date : 18th March 2002
182 Days ( Gann Emblem ) from the Sept 2002 Low gives us the date : 22nd March 2002
521 Days (18 Oct 99 - 22 Mar 01) from 18th Oct 2000 Significant low gives : 23rd Mar 2002
439 Days (8 Mar 00 - 21 May 01) from 4th Jan 2001 significant high gives 19th Mar 2002
The March Equinox falls at 12.19 am on the 21st March 2002

Taking the above numbers into account and the fact that the last two equinoxes have proven useful, then we can make an assumption as to the upcoming Dates. As can be seen, there is a relatively wide variety in dates, however, that average for all the times falls around the 20th and 21st of March, so a change of trend can be expected on or around these days.


Summary for Week Ending 1st Feb 2002

The Markets this week have shown a continuation of the nervousness that has been evident since the Jan 7th high. The ongoing Enron fiasco certainly isn't helping confidence, however markets have a short memory for such things, and unless there is some other bad news lurking in the wings, most of the potential damage is already factored in.

Looking at the weekly swing charts, all three markets are still pointing down with Wednesday's low being lower that Last Wednesdays low. An Up week this week will swing all three markets up , confirming the swing low ( Wed 30th Jan ), and then attention will be on whether the market has the capability of producing a Higher or Lower Swing high. A Higher Swing High following a lower swing low gives us an Uncertain market, and a Lower Swing High at this point would be a confirmation (under Ganns rules) of the Downward trend.

The Charts this week highlight the Price Retracement levels for the previous major upswing. The Dow displayed an interesting 'mini spike' low on Wednesday, indicating considerable support at this level. Also the S&P display a hearty pullback from this zone as well, so it is a fair bet that the market will maintain and improve its current levels, at least in the short term. Numbers to watch this week are the Retracement levels from the Jan 7 high to the Jan 30 low.


DJIA See Chart

S&P 500 See Chart

NASDAQ See Chart



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