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Summary for Week Ending 23rd Nov 2001
DJIA See
Chart
Whilst we await the outcome of the 19th Nov COT, we have seen the DJIA
test the 10000 level, only to be beaten back. See the Summary
for the 19th Nov COT for discussion on pattern.
This weeks chart shows the Major resistance level from the previous swing,
as well as the Range Square forward from the initial upswing from the
Sept 21 low ( 851 points) When looking for likely resistance levels, then
we take % retracements from major highs to the Sept low, as well as repeating
price ranges in the current upward swing. Look to Monday as a possible
COT for the week, and it should be remembered that the current COT for
the 19th is immediately canceled once new highs are made.
S&P 500 See
Chart
The S&P appears to be in the final throes of the current movement,
slowly edging its way towards the major resistance level of 1174 (61.8%
of the previous swing down). Consecutive upward swings are getting smaller
giving strong indications of a weakening in the current trend. It should
be noted however, that at most, the market is making only 1-2 day countertrend
corrective movements so reactions from likely tops should be watched closely.
This weeks chart shows the 38.2% retracement level (1177) from
the Mar 2000 high and the Square of 9 from the May 2001 high showing 1175
at 360 deg Decay. Also 200% Range Square of the first swing up ( 945 to
1120 ) gives us 1171 so it can be expected that these levels will
offer some form of resistance in the future. Also overlaid on the chart
is the Market Specific Square of 1553 from the March 2000 high.
NASDAQ See
Chart
The current upswing in the NASDAQ, whilst in percentage terms has been
impressive, in actual index points itself, performance has been pathetic.
Previous bounces from intermediate lows have shown a greater exuberance
in getting on with things. The current swing up is the most shallow rise/run
since 1998 and this may be a factor of the underlying economy of NASDAQ
stocks, and also the relative 'gun-shyness' of investors towards technology
stocks at the present moment. Last weeks high on the 19th also corresponded
with the forecast for the Dow, so we will watch the market action this
week for confirmation.
This weeks chart is a Weekly, showing the devastation of the slump in
the Index since March last year. Applied is a Market Specific Square of
5133 from the all time high of the same value, and the Price retracements
are also highlighted against the previous downward swing. As previously
mentioned, it is also obvious how the character of the market has changed
to being far less dynamic than in previous experience. With the current
market being so slow, the first point to watch will be the 61.8% retracement
level, and then the resistance line coming from the Market specific square.
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