23rd December 2001 - Dow Jones Industrial
Average ( DJIA ) Outlook
Taking a number of time frames into account, there is a clustering
around the 9th of January and the 10th of January with
a couple of major time frames coming out on this date as well as 182
days ( Gann Emblem ) from the 11th July minor low. |
23rd December 2001 - Standard and Poors
500 ( S&P 500 ) Outlook
Taking a number of larger time frames into account, there is a clustering
around the 9th of January and the 11th of January as
well as the 182 days ( Gann Emblem ) from the 11th July minor low.
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23rd December 2001 - NASDAQ Outlook
Taking a number of larger time frames into account, there is a clustering
around the 21st, 22nd and 23rd of January. This date area also
applies to the other markets as it represents 100% of the previous
wave down. Although there are time frames also pointing to this area,
it should be noted that Markets very rarely 'mirror' in this fashion,
so faith in this date is currently low. Market action as the Date
approaches will be a better indicator. I leave it to the reader to
look into this in their own time. |
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Summary for Week Ending 21st Dec 2001
DJIA See
Chart
***** As mentioned in last weeks report,
Monday was the indicator day for the Dec 14th COT which had the market
approaching a significant support area. Action for the week was healthy,
with good gains confirming the 14th Dec COT and initially finding resistance
on the forecast 19th Dec COT, however this was broken by a slightly new
high on Friday 21st.
This weeks chart shows the Parallel channel that has been dominating analysis
for the past few weeks. As can be seen, gains this week off the 14th Dec
low have hit hard against the upper line and are possibly due to break
out shortly. From a technical perspective, a Classic Elliott 3 wave decline
would still give the Chart 'Balance' although time for this to form is
running out with the annual 'January Effect' period upon us. Last year
saw the Christmas Charge run from 21st Dec to 4th Jan and the previous
Year saw 21st Dec to 29th and the 5th Jan to the 14th.
S&P 500 See
Chart
***** As mentioned last week, we were awaiting
confirmation of the 14th Dec COT which came on Monday. Three days of rises
up to the forecast 19th Dec COT which managed to pull up the advance around
the 61% retracement level.
This weeks chart has the dominating Parallel Channel highlighted
again, as well as the price retracements for the rally that occurred this
week. The shape of the Chart is leading towards the expected 3 wave decline,
however as mentioned earlier, the 'January Effect' period is upon us, and
time may run out before it can complete. With a short week ahead due to
the holiday season, action for all markets will be very limited, and active
players can be expected to be on the sidelines. This may lead to large movements
on small volumes, as amateurs jockey for position in the New Year.
NASDAQ See
Chart
***** I indicated last week that the NASDAQ
would more than likely mirror the other markets, and that expected COT's
should be assigned to this market as well. The NASDAQ has been the only
market so far to give up the 3 wave decline, with the High for the week
coming in on the forecast 19th COT, and then declining to the lower end
of the minor parallel support line.
This weeks chart highlights the declining parallel channel, as well as the
Major declining trend line from the all time High. The market has jumped
to the outside of the declining Trend line (red).
Movement can be expected to hold to the outside of this line, so that would
indicate forward movement up to the upper Channel line before meeting any
resistance. Its a short week, and there are not Forecast COT dates. |
