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  Dec 28th 2001
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24th November 2001 - DJIA Forecast - Final Entry

18th September 2001 - Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Outlook
Events of Sept 11th have made forecasting all that much difficult, when conditions make for flighty reactions to any news items. The constrained nervousness will take time to dissipate. The impact of the above mentioned events cannot be discounted, and should provide a significant reference point for future moves. Of specific importance will be the next 90 days. The dates to watch will be around 30, 60 and 90 degree dates from Sept 11. Another date also to watch in Sept is around the equinox ( 23rd Sept in New York ) which is 180 degrees after the previous spike low which occurred on 22 March ( 2 days after the March equinox ). Taking a number of larger time frames into account, there is a clustering around the 19th of November. This date may be subject to alteration as market action will show the way.

Summary for Week Ending 23rd Nov 2001
The Dow made its run to break 10000 on Monday 19th only to fall away at the close, but still giving us the High for the week and confirming the forecasted 19th Nov COT date. A second attempt to break new territory occured Tuesday, forming a lower top (intra-day) indicating lower prices. Thanksgiving put a hole in the week, and Friday's action showed consistent strength throughout the shortened session, rising 125 points on the day. We had to corrective days off the Forecast Top, with history showingthatthe Last correction was also just two days.

Looking at price action and wave structure, we have a semi-classic Elliot wave pattern. This weeks chart has been marked up with the main wave structures, highlighted by the blue markers numbered 1 to 5. The corresponding price ranges are also highlighted.

Wave 1
851 points
Wave 3
1228 points
Wave 5
1053 points
Wave 1-3
1700 points

Looking at relationships between waves, the following stand out :
  • Wave 3 and Wave 5
    1228 / 1053 = 0.857     (0.618 x 1.382 = 0.854)
  • Wave 1-3 and Wave 5
    1053 / 1700 = 0.619     (very close to the famous Fibonacci 0.618)
Should the Monday top hold then we can expect prices to decline up to around 14th Dec with support around the 8984 area. It should also be noted that the Wave 4 low of 8988 is 50% of the overall movement from 21st Sept, thus giving even more geometry in support of the Monday top.
This is the last entry for this forecast.
Week Ending 16th November 2001
*** Another strong effort this week saw the Dow rise past the major 50% resistance level of 9918 and make a high for the week of 9967. Movement from Mondays low represented a swing of 620 points before meeting resistance on Thursday ( see last weeks report ) at the weeks high of 9967. Fridays action was mixed at best and being an inside day is no indicator as to the current swing being terminated. The previous swing movement up was 777 points (1st Nov - 8th Nov), and should this current swing terminate, at current levels then we have a shrinkage of the swing ranges indicating a weakening in the current trend.

Click Here to bring up this weeks chart in a separate browser.

This weeks chart has the current forecast time frames highlighted as well as a Market Specific Square of 11909 overlaid from the 14th Jan 2000 high of the same value. As for the current forecast for the 19th Nov, last weeks Time Frames table has been updated indicating this weeks chart, highlighting the the repeating Time Frames that led to the initial forecast . Regarding price, the Major resistance of 9918 has been tested leaving us with the 61.8 % level from 21st May-21st Sept range. Also the 851 point vibration should also be watched closely this week.

8th Nov 2000 to 21st Sept 2001 (317 days) added to 4th Jan 2001 17th Nov
242 Days from 22 Mar 2001 (Gann Emblem) 19th Nov
8th Mar 2000 - 21st May 2001 (440 days) added to 6th Sept 2000 20th Nov
*22nd Mar - 21 May (60 Days) added to 21st Sept Low 20th Nov
182 Days from 21st May High (Gann Emblem) 19th Nov
*60 Degrees from 21st Sept Low 20th Nov
60 Degrees from 17th Sept Market Restart 16th Nov
180 Degrees from 21st May High 22nd Nov

*It should be noted that the 60 Day repeating time frame and the 60 deg calculations both arise from the major low of the 21st Sept which occurred after the original forecast was posted.
Week Ending 9th November 2001
A reasonably impressive performance for the market this week with a rally following on from last weeks bullishness to make a high on Thursday before selling off. Technically speaking Thursday's high of 9765 was the 50% retracement level from the 12th April 2000 - 21st Sept low 2001 range. The significance of this range however is somewhat limited, and may only prove to be a minor setback in the underlying trend. Looking back, the Nov 5th COT date did nothing leaving us watching the market for the end of week 10th Nov COT date. Fridays action proved worthless, so we look to Monday's action for an indication to trend.
Note
Also worth watching, is the day of the week that the market is making its highs and lows since the 21st Sept low. A close look reveals that Thursday seems very popular for the runs to expire. (This is the value of charting with the weekends included).


There is no COT date this week, with the forecast 19th Nov approaching. Things at this point are getting very confused with a number of Dates falling in and around this longer term forecast :
Repeating Time Frames 19th Nov
60 Degrees from 21st Sept Low 20th Nov
60 Degrees from 17th Sept restart 16th Nov
180 Degrees from 21st May High 22nd Nov

As an indicator to price levels, this weeks chart shows the 851 range applied to the recent 1st Nov Low, giving a 100% range target of 9839. Also, for those with the Professional version, watch closely the 50% retracement level from the 14th Jan high to the 21st Sept Low. We are getting very close to that as well. See Chart
Week Ending 2nd November 2001
*** Last weeks market action saw the Price and Time convergence of Fri 26th Oct solidly held. The repeating 35 day time frame for the rally provided an excellent example of using market history to make assumptions about market future. It should be noted that a good proportion of Gann's work surrounds the recording of time frames between market extremes and using these time frames to forecast forward where future changes of trend can be expected.

This weeks chart highlights the the 35 day time frame alluded to in last weeks posting as well as the resultant Price Retracement which approached the popular Fibonacci level of 38.2% before finding support ( 38.2%- 8977 Actual - 8988 ).

Looking ahead, we are approaching Sat 10th Nov which is the 60 degrees Solar Time vibration (see original forecast at top of page) from the Sept 11th attack. The 30 deg vibration ( 11th Oct ) provided a short term COT, so we can expect the 60 deg to provide a COT also. In support of this COT date we also have a minor repeating time frame of 122(3) days which is generated from the last major market range 21st May 2001 to 21st Sept 2001.

Being a religious man, one of Gann's favorite sources of inspiration was the Bible, and the numbers that are mentioned within its pages. Bearing this in mind, highlighted on this weeks chart is a major time frame of 666 days from the all time high on 14th Jan 2000, terminating on 10th Nov 2001. For those without a Christian religious background, the number 666 comes from the Book of Revelations and is probably the most famous of all bible numbers. It's relevance or lack of.... I leave to the reader.

With all this in mind, we now have to wait for the market to play out, and falling on a Weekend means that Friday and following Monday market action should be watched carefully. Also, as mentioned in last weeks posting, Monday Nov 5th is still in play and should also be closely watched. With regard to price, the much mentioned 851 price range ( see previous postings ) and percentages thereof should be followed. See Chart ...
Week Ending 26th October 2001
A week of mixed results with generally dull market action finally finishing with a flurry of upward movement on Friday which provided a Range Square reference point which will be monitored next week. This week appears to have been spent trying to decide what to do, with a number of Anthrax and Osama related rumors providing very limited rationales for going in either direction and the projected 21st COT provided nothing to write home about.

When the market is like this then its always best to sit tight and apply a wait and see approach. If you are already long then sitting tight would probably be the appropriate action , whereas if you aren't in and looking for an entry then perhaps caution might be the better side of valor since the market is approaching the all important 50% retracement level ( from the 11909 high - 9918 and from the more recent 11436 high - 9682 ).

This weeks chart highlights Fridays action (High - 9627) being 35 days since the Sept 21st low (when the market first fell from the All time high, the resultant rally, 3/8/00 - 4/12/00, lasted 35 days). Also marked up on the chart is the Range Square of 851 points projected forward giving a price target of 9630.

There is no definitive COT date this week, however there are 2 weak time vibrations and a 45 degree Solar vibration giving up Nov 3rd and Nov 5th. This provides a confused state of affairs for any analyst, so price action will be watched closely on these days. See Chart ...
Week Ending 19th October 2001
For those that were paying attention last week ( and I wasn't one of them ), the high for the week came in on Wed 17th Oct. This was 30 degrees after the resumption of trading day after the Sept 11th attacks. Also of note, this was also the anniversary date for last years low which came in on Wed 18th Oct 2000. Price action is mixed, with no credible indicator to the high reached on Wednesday.
This weeks chart has the previous COT dates outlined, as well as the Sept 17th (yellow/red) high marked up as well. Should price action continue down, the Price Retracement tool is also marked up displaying the percentage retracement levels from the 21st Sept - 17 Oct Range.

As mentioned last week, the COT date for this week is the Sun 21st Oct, being 30 degrees from the 21st Sept low which is marked up on the Chart with the Solar Frequencies tool, so close attention should be paid to price action on Monday. See Chart ...

Week Ending 12th October 2001
*** Last weeks 4th Oct COT only held for a couple of days before being broken by a strong upward movement on Wed 10th. The projected COT date for this week was the 11th Oct (30 degree date from the Sept 11th attacks), and has held as the High for the week at 9433.

This weeks chart is fairly busy with plenty to talk about. The Recent COT forecasts are highlighted, clearly displaying the advantages of the various WD Gann approaches to forecasting future dates for a change in trend.

Whilst the 4th Oct COT was accurate, last weeks report did not hint at higher highs, so the following is an excellent example for the aspiring analyst of how to approach the market when a forecasted COT is short-lived.

Once a higher high was scored on the 10th Oct, all interest in the Short side of the market is discarded, with attention placed on the likely resistance levels for the forecasted 11th Oct COT date.
Highlighted on this weeks chart is the Price Retracement tool showing the popular Fibonacci 38.2% ( blue ) retracement level from the Jan 14th 2000 all time high of 11908 ( see basics ...). The favored Gann level at this range is 37.5%, giving us a resistance level at 9420.
Averaging of these (9448 + 9420)/2 = 9434. Thursday's High :- 9433

As mentioned in the 28th Sept report, the range of 851 points should provide the range vibration for the movement. Highlighted on the chart is the 654 point Range Square ( black ) from the 25th Sept High to the 11th Oct High. 851 * 76.4% ( see basics ...) gives a division of the Range Square at 651 points.

Action this week centers on the 11th Oct COT date holding. The above analysis of the swing high price does indicate that an element of importance should be attached to it. As always, the caveat is that attempting to pick intermediate tops and bottoms is a hazardous exercise. Any movement swinging higher should be followed with attention being placed at the significant resistance levels, particularly the levels surrounding the 851 point vibration. There is no COT forecast for this week with the next COT date forecast for Sunday 21st Oct ( Pink ). As previously indicated for weekend COT dates, careful attention should be placed on the preceding Friday's market action as well. See Chart ...
Week Ending 5th October 2001
***** The Price/Time projections outlined last week displayed a classic Price and Time convergence with Price touching 9259.61 on the selected date of October 4th. This date represented 30 degrees in time from the 4th September reaction high which occurred just prior to the price slump.
Looking at price, we had price clustering around 9255.
The resistance prices were 9267.55 being the 38.2% retracement level from the 21st May 2001 High, and 9249.44 being an 851.30 point range extension from the 27th Sept 2001 low of 8398.14. Using these two target prices we can then take the average : (9267.55 + 9249.44) / 2 = 9258.49 ... This can be considered as close enough.

This weeks chart has the previous forecasted prices and times outlined as well as a view for the week ahead. Should Thursdays high hold then continued bearishness can be expected. Likely support should be found around the standard Fibonacci areas as well as the 50% retracement level. A decline past the 61.8% level should be viewed cautiously as it may indicate further precipitous slides. The Date to watch this week will be the Thursday the 11th October, as indicated in the initial outlook, this date is 30 degrees in time form the WTC horror. Market reaction on this date will be an indicator for future vibrations off this event... See Chart ...
Week Ending 28th September 2001
***** As indicated last week, a change in trend was due. Time Analysis indicated a change in trend for Sunday the 23rd, 180 degrees from the March low. As sometimes happens when COT dates fall on a weekend, the Days to watch are the Friday prior and the Monday following. In this case the Friday low was the COT date, occurring exactly on the Equinox. The vigorous buying alluded to last week, finally appeared on the Monday morning giving the Index a 1000 point range on a Friday to Friday basis.

This weeks chart has the COT date highlighted as well as a number of price targets marked up using the Price Retracement tool and the Price Extension tool. Notice the clustering of price around 9255 and 9680. The market should be watched carefully if and when these levels are approached. The initial Swing range up of 851 points (7927-8778) should also be noted as this number can be expected to provide a price range vibration for this movement. As an aside, a weak COT date is indicated for Thur Oct 4th... See Chart...
Week Ending 21st September 2001
This past week has seen a trading range of an amazing 1653 points. All of it in one direction : Down. The market finished the week above 8000 points after hitting 7927 during Friday's session.

The Chart this week shows the Dow Weekly with the Vertical Axis set to Logarithmic. The Trend line displayed is an extension from the 1987 Low of 1616 through to the Nov 1994 Low of 3612. As can be seen, this current downward movement is approaching this line of support and close attention should be paid to this early in the week. Price action this week around 7860 would find this trendline. Other areas of interest are the standard 50% support areas. These are as follows:

3521 - 11909 * 50% 7715
2344 - 11909 * 50% 7126
1616 - 11909 * 50% 6762
1616 - 11909 * 38.2% 7977*

*This was included as it is close to Fridays low of 7927.

The coming week should show signs of the previous panic easing, and perhaps some vigorous buying may appear if a strong enough rally can get established. The Date to watch this week will be Monday 24th Sept as this will be 180 solar degrees from the March 22nd Spike low. See Chart...



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