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Summary for Week Ending 14th Dec 2001
DJIA See
Chart
Market action this week has seen all the gains of last week evaporate,
with all markets managing to show declines for every day of the week.
Looking at the chart we have 6 red bars in a row, which has not occurred
since the September decline, and prior to that, not since the falls from
the 22nd May major top. As pointed out last week, the parallel channel
has managed to stop the Dow in its tracks, and the decline is heading
towards technically important support areas. As we are approaching the
Christmas period, we can also expect interest to wane. The much anticipated
90 deg from Sept 11 fizzled and gave us nothing, which shows that participants
have recovered and therefore is no longer relevant from a technical perspective.
It does remain, however a Date from which to look for anniversaries, so
Sept 11th 2002 will be a date to watch.
This weeks chart shows the Parallel channel as outlined last week and
the suddenness of the market reaction off this point. Also highlighted
are the Time ranges giving the forecasted COT areas as well as as the
Price Retracements from the previous swing showing the minor support levels
that can be expected. The forecast COT's are the due with last Friday
being the first one to pass and the market showed some resilience coming
off its lows for the day and closing above the open. Monday 17th will
be the indicator day for this COT, with Monday also being a COT day so
there is plenty to watch this week. Technically, initial support is around
the 9650 level, which was the low for last week, and as we hit this area
on Friday so some forward movement could be expected, although the strength
of this should be viewed with suspicion. Look for strong movement with
volume for confirmation.
S&P 500 See
Chart
***** The forecasted 1171 area (See
Nov 23rd) has held with the market declining consistently since
hitting this area. As per the Dow, we have had 6 consecutive days of declines
giving us some very bearish indicators. It is technically unlikely that
the market will resume straight off these declines, and is more likely to
form a classic Elliott '3 Wave' decline before this reaction is over and
forward momentum can take over.
This weeks chart has the major declining Parallel Channel highlighted
again, as well as the Time ranges indicating the forecast COT for the 14th-17th
Dec area. Also highlighted is the Price Retracements from the previous intermediate
swing showing the market finding some support on the 50% retracement level
as well as the minor rising parallel channel, hitting Fridays low on the
forecast COT. Monday will be the indicator day for this COT should it hold,
we can wait and see how the expected 3 wave decline will unfold.
NASDAQ See
Chart
As with the above reports, all the Markets appear to be in sync at the moment,
and leading into the holiday period, nervous investors are more likely to
be sidelined than to be active participants. What is very noticeable this
Christmas, is the lack of news about DotComs and their expected income from
Christmas sales etc. It wasn't too long ago that this was almost headline
making news. Funny how quickly times can change, especially when you blow
a couple of billion in worthless advertising.
This weeks chart highlights the Declining parallel channel, as well as the
Major declining Channel from the all time High as the minor rising channel
for the current movement. As can be seen, the market is following a similar
pattern to the S&P and this copycat action can be expected to continue
into the Holiday break, This being said, the NASDAQ can therefore be expected
to react to the same COT dates as well. The Day to watch this week is Monday
which will be the indicator for the 14th Dec low holding. Any break out
on the downside from the rising channel should be viewed as another bearish
indicator. |
